(March 19, 2026) Surging crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical instability, and a severe drought in the U.S. "Wheat Belt" have caused Kansas Hard Red Winter wheat futures to reach nine-month highs. This rally is fueled by the high correlation with oil and threatens crop yields.
(March 20, 2026) Rising fertilizer costs and global energy disruptions are creating potential for an agricultural bull cycle. Fertilizer availability is a global production issue tied to energy prices, which also increase transportation and operational costs for grain, signaling potential for sustained higher prices.
(December 17, 2025) Despite record world wheat production in 2025, the price outlook for 2026 is improving. This is due to the forecast La Niña weather pattern, which is expected to result in a smaller U.S. wheat crop due to warmer and drier conditions.
(March 13, 2026) Global wheat trade is set to rebound in 2025/26, supported by large supplies from major exporters like Argentina and Australia. This abundance has led to relatively low international wheat prices. The only major exporter with a forecasted decrease in exports is Ukraine.
(December 16, 2025) Record global harvests are currently depressing wheat prices, with lower-priced exports from Argentina shaping global values. However, potential market risks for 2026 include shipping disruptions in the Black Sea and unfavorable spring weather in the Northern Hemisphere, which could quickly reverse the trend.